Bitcoin failed to hold its breakout to $74,000 and fell back to $67,000 within days. Despite a wave of positive institutional news, macroeconomic factors dominate market activity. Analysts warn: the correction is not over yet. This makes one thing clear: the gains were not the beginning of a new bull market that many hoped for, but rather a short-term affair.
Large Bitcoin holders, so-called whales, aggressively accumulated during the war-driven sell-off at the end of February. Wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC accumulated massively between February 23 and March 3, when Bitcoin traded between $62,900 and $69,600. But when the price reached $74,000 on Thursday, those same wallets began taking profits. According to Santiment, they have since sold off around 66 percent of their previously acquired positions.
At the same time, retail investors bought more aggressively as Bitcoin fell below $70,000. Wallets with less than 0.01 BTC increased their holdings continuously. Santiment calls this pattern a classic warning signal: “When retail buys while whales sell, it typically signals that the correction is not yet over.”
Glassnode data paints a grimmer picture. Roughly 43 percent of the entire Bitcoin supply is currently underwater. Every price increase meets sellers who have been underwater for weeks or months and want to exit at their break-even prices. That’s exactly what happened at $74,000: the recovery hit a wall of supply, both from profit-taking whales and from holders wanting to limit their losses.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell by six points on Saturday to 12, signaling “extreme fear.” This is one of the lowest readings since the October crash. The sell-off was primarily triggered by US dollar strength following escalation of the Iran conflict. President Trump ruled out a negotiated solution, stating: “There will be no deal with Iran.”
This sent oil prices higher, fueled new inflation concerns, and shifted expectations for rate cuts, despite weak labor market data. Additionally, cracks appeared in the global private credit market. BlackRock reportedly began limiting payouts from its $26 billion private credit fund after redemption requests increased. This further unsettled investors.
Short-term Bitcoin holders transferred more than 27,000 BTC ($1.8 billion) to exchanges at a profit in the last 24 hours. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, this was one of the largest spikes in recent months. This group typically reacts most strongly to market uncertainty and acts more like traders than long-term investors. The only short-term investors currently in profit are those who bought Bitcoin between a week and a month ago at a realized price of around $68,000.
Buyers above that level are securing their gains rather than expanding their positions. Despite the negative momentum, there are positive signals. According to a Binance Research report, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of around $787 million last week. These were the first positive weekly inflows since mid-January and suggest that institutional investors are returning after weeks of sustained outflows.
Bitcoin funding rates have fallen to their lowest levels since 2023. This shows that leveraged long positions have been largely unwound. Historically, such conditions create a cleaner foundation for more sustainable rallies driven by spot demand rather than short-term speculation. The market stands at a crossroads.
Either selling pressure exhausts itself, the underwater supply gets absorbed, and Bitcoin breaks convincingly above $74,000. Or buying power runs out, retail investors exhaust their capital, and support at $60,000 is seriously tested. The behavior of whales this week suggests they are betting on the latter. With thin liquidity, a nervous market, and no clear catalysts, Bitcoin remains trapped in a volatile sideways trend where enormous intra-week moves lead to no sustainable monthly net movement.
Leave a Reply