Crypto expert PlanB, the creator of the Stock-to-Flow model for Bitcoin (BTC), has reaffirmed his prediction that the asset will achieve an average price of $500,000 during the current halving cycle spanning 2024 to 2028.
Notably, the Stock-to-Flow framework assesses Bitcoin’s value based on its scarcity by comparing the existing supply (stock) to the rate of new issuance (flow).
Halving events, which reduce mining rewards every four years, progressively increase this ratio and have historically correlated with substantial price appreciation in prior cycles.
PlanB’s analysis incorporates this dynamic, projecting a broad range of $250,000 to $1 million for the period, with $500,000 serving as the approximate midpoint average.
The forecast aligns with the model’s performance during the 2020–2024 cycle, when it projected an average near $55,000 while the actual figure settled around $34,000—still within an acceptable variance, according to PlanB.
He argued the approach remains effective, citing consistent directional accuracy across multiple cycles despite short-term deviations.
The outlook examined Bitcoin’s historical trajectory alongside key indicators such as the 200-week moving average, realized price, and the Stock-to-Flow projection for the 2024–2028 period.
The analysis also overlaid the current price with RSI coloring to highlight momentum, suggesting potential upside if historical patterns persist.
PlanB noted that the model focuses on cycle averages rather than exact peaks or troughs, framing current levels as a potential buying window for investors aligned with its long-term scarcity thesis.
The bullish outlook comes as Bitcoin continues to face volatility after pulling back from recent highs near $74,000 earlier in the week.
PlanB, the creator of Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) framework, reaffirmed an average price target of about $500,000 for Bitcoin during the 2024–2028 halving cycle.
The S2F model links value to scarcity by comparing existing supply to the rate of new issuance, and halving events—reducing block rewards every four years—tend to raise this ratio and historically accompany price appreciation.
PlanB’s projection spans roughly $250,000 to $1,000,000, with $500,000 serving as the approximate midpoint.
The forecast aligns with the model’s performance in the 2020–2024 cycle, where it projected an average near $55,000 while the actual figure settled around $34,000—still within an acceptable variance, according to PlanB.
He argues the approach remains effective, citing consistent directional accuracy across cycles despite shorter-term deviations.
The analysis also considers indicators such as the 200-week moving average, realized price, and RSI overlays to gauge momentum and potential upside if historical patterns persist.
PlanB notes the model emphasizes cycle averages over precise peaks or troughs, framing current levels as a potential buying window for investors aligned with its long-term scarcity thesis.
The bullish view persists as Bitcoin remains volatile after pulling back from recent highs near $74,000 earlier this week.
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