This market will resolve to “Up” if the “Close” price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTCUSDT Mar 14 ’26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final “Close” price for the Mar 15 ’26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to “Down” if the “Close” price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTCUSDT Mar 14 ’26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final “Close” price for the Mar 15 ’26 12:00 ET candle. If the final “Close” price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT “Close” prices currently available at null with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTCUSDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Volume$210,117. End DateMar 15, 2026
The current market probability is 96% for “Up.” A price of 96% means the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. Prices update in real-time as traders react to live Bitcoin price movements. The current probability for “Bitcoin Up or Down on March 15?” is 96% for “Up,” meaning the Polymarket crowd currently assigns a 96% chance that Bitcoin’s price will finish up over this daily window.
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