The Bitcoin–gold correlation in March showed an unusually low linkage, suggesting Bitcoin may have already formed a bottom. The development has drawn attention as Bitcoin trades near multi-year highs while gold weakens. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe analyzed the BTC–gold ratio chart, noting that the current drawdown of about 70% is near the end of a 13–14 month bear market. The ratio has historically bottomed after large declines of 86% (2014), 83% (2018), and 76% (2022), and when the ratio rebounds, Bitcoin has tended to outperform gold.
Van de Poppe also suggested the chart may stop falling, and that a pullback could open room for Bitcoin to rebound. “This time won’t be different,” said Michaël van de Poppe. In March, the BTC–gold correlation dropped to -0.9, a level not seen since late 2022, with Bitcoin trading around $15,600 at the bottom and then rising over the following two years. CryptoQuant data showed a similar -0.9 correlation for March.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt noted a Nine Red Birds pattern in gold—a nine-day streak of daily declines—often followed by prolonged recoveries. Taken with Brandt’s outlook and the BTC–gold negative correlation, there is a case that Bitcoin may have already bottomed in March. Swissblock, an institutional data analyst, said Bitcoin reflected geopolitical risk first when Iran’s surge occurred, indicating it absorbed risk faster and did not reprice it as systemic risk. Additionally, a whale address holding over 1,000 BTC reached a one-year high despite war and recession fears.
Bitcoin also started the week alongside macro data releases, including PMI and initial jobless claims. These indicators are expected to influence the market’s direction going forward.
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