Bitcoin is trapped between levels. Momentum is bearish but exhausting. Weekly MACD deeply negative, RSI at 33.59 and approaching oversold, daily MACD attempting a fragile bullish crossover. $69,000 is the line in the sand.
Two clear scenarios emerge. In a bullish scenario, the $69,000 level (previous cycle ATH) holds as support, short-term holders capitulate, and the market resets for a new leg higher. Price defends the $69,000 weekly support zone and forms a higher low on the daily chart. Daily RSI breaks above 60, confirming bullish momentum restoration.
The daily MACD lines have crossed bullish and are hovering just above zero — a tentative positive signal (yellow circle). The histogram bars are small and mixed, reflecting consolidation rather than directional conviction. This crossover needs to hold, and the histogram needs to expand into green territory to confirm follow-through buying. Price reclaims the $73-74,000 level (former support, now resistance) — this is the first key confirmation.
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