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Geopolitical risk tied to Iran is prompting Western banks to withdraw from parts of commodity-trade networks, accelerating the use of dollar-pegged stablecoins for settlement. CoinDesk reported that Western banks are stepping back from certain trades over sanctions concerns. Luke Sully of Haycen warned that banks’ increased compliance burdens are fueling a new wave of “debanking” in commodity markets, with some traders facing cuts to bank transactions. The core issue centers on counterparty risk: even trades that appear lawful could be connected to Iran-related entities, prompting banks to withdraw rather than risk exposure.

In trade finance, a sector estimated at about $2 trillion, non-bank lenders such as private credit funds already provide funding, but the final settlement link to banking networks has weakened, lifting stablecoins as an alternative. In this context, stablecoins such as Tether’s USDT are increasingly used for one-off settlements, as traditional rails retreat. Sully noted that “Tether is absorbing a substantial part of settlement flows,” highlighting its growing usefulness in emerging-market trades. He added that this trend is still a workaround rather than a wholesale solution for trade finance.

The stablecoin market itself is expanding rapidly: total market capitalization surpassed $300 billion in 2025, with transaction volume over $4 trillion and stablecoins accounting for roughly 30% of on-chain activity. Against this backdrop, Haycen is moving to commercialize its dollar-pegged stablecoin for trade finance, USDhn, aiming to build liquidity and settlement infrastructure for global trade based on non-bank participants. Users would deposit funds, conduct trades using stablecoins, and potentially earn interest depending on regulatory requirements. Analysts note the retreat of banks could accelerate cryptocurrency adoption as more trade finance activities shift to non-bank players and non-bank-style transaction methods; there are even reports of bitcoin being used for payments tied to Hormuz transit.